Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Live
Without injured defensive back Brandon Flowers or suspended linebacker Tamba Hali, available, Kansas City allowed an embarrassing 8 straight scoring drives by Matt Ryan and the Falcons to open the game last week. The return of Flowers and Hali in week two will help, but there are certainly some additional adjustments needed for a defense that just got the snot knocked out of them. The Chiefs offense was steady and well balanced against the Falcons, but Matt Cassel and company are built to run the ball and were not explosive enough to counteract a Kansas City defense that was giving away points like they were free beers at the concession stand.
The Buffalo Bills are a mess. Defensively the Bills made the Jets and Mark Sanchez look like a high powered machine, giving up 4 touchdowns and nearly 400 yards of offense to a Jets squad that had nearly forgotten what an end zone looked like. The picture wasn’t much better offensively for Buffalo. Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed two interceptions in Buffalo’s first two possessions and only got going late after the game was out of hand. Running back Fred Jackson was injured once again in the second quarter of the game and does not appear to be returning any time soon.
The wrong team is favored here. While it was ugly last week, there is almost no chance the Chiefs defense gets lit up by the Bills. We predicted the destruction that Matt Ryan tossed at the shorthanded Chiefs secondary, but there is a Grand Canyon sized difference between Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don’t expect C.J. Spiller and the Bills running game to bail out Fitzpatrick either. The Chiefs held the Falcons to just 84 yards on the ground and Tamba Hali’s return will only help Kansas City. While Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel doesn’t strike fear into anyone, Kansas City has enough weapons at their disposal to get the job done here, not just for the cover, but for the outright win.
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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the Kansas City Chiefs winning 50% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Kansas City Chiefs commit fewer turnovers in 59% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jamaal Charles is averaging 71 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 71%. C.J. Spiller is averaging 83 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BUF -3.5 --- Over/Under line is 44.5
Without injured defensive back Brandon Flowers or suspended linebacker Tamba Hali, available, Kansas City allowed an embarrassing 8 straight scoring drives by Matt Ryan and the Falcons to open the game last week. The return of Flowers and Hali in week two will help, but there are certainly some additional adjustments needed for a defense that just got the snot knocked out of them. The Chiefs offense was steady and well balanced against the Falcons, but Matt Cassel and company are built to run the ball and were not explosive enough to counteract a Kansas City defense that was giving away points like they were free beers at the concession stand.
The Buffalo Bills are a mess. Defensively the Bills made the Jets and Mark Sanchez look like a high powered machine, giving up 4 touchdowns and nearly 400 yards of offense to a Jets squad that had nearly forgotten what an end zone looked like. The picture wasn’t much better offensively for Buffalo. Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed two interceptions in Buffalo’s first two possessions and only got going late after the game was out of hand. Running back Fred Jackson was injured once again in the second quarter of the game and does not appear to be returning any time soon.
The wrong team is favored here. While it was ugly last week, there is almost no chance the Chiefs defense gets lit up by the Bills. We predicted the destruction that Matt Ryan tossed at the shorthanded Chiefs secondary, but there is a Grand Canyon sized difference between Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Don’t expect C.J. Spiller and the Bills running game to bail out Fitzpatrick either. The Chiefs held the Falcons to just 84 yards on the ground and Tamba Hali’s return will only help Kansas City. While Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel doesn’t strike fear into anyone, Kansas City has enough weapons at their disposal to get the job done here, not just for the cover, but for the outright win.
AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the Kansas City Chiefs winning 50% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 49% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Kansas City Chiefs commit fewer turnovers in 59% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jamaal Charles is averaging 71 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 71%. C.J. Spiller is averaging 83 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BUF -3.5 --- Over/Under line is 44.5
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